The project addresses the problem of strategic allocation of resources to protect soft targets from adaptive adversaries. We use methods from game theory and adversarial risk and decision analysis to construct models that represent the adversary as a rational actor with their own motivations, objectives, beliefs, and capabilities. We then seek to optimize the allocation of countermeasures implemented at soft targets to maximize the defenders’ expected utility. We validate these models using behavioral games to better understand decision-making by rational adaptive adversaries. We then apply these models to specific soft targets to demonstrate their efficacy and provide examples of transitioning our models and methodology into practice to provide greater and more efficient security for soft targets.
Already researchers have begun the development of novel game-theoretic models that support the defense of one or more targets, which each contain multiple layers of security. The objective of the defenders is to optimally allocate their resources to the respective layers to decrease the probability of a successful attack, or to deter the adversary from executing an attack plan. We also started to extend the initial models to allow for incomplete information, specifically considering (i) a covert defender who does not make all security layers known, (ii) an attacker who does not know the reliability (effectiveness) of the different layers, and (iii) an attacker (defender) who is uncertain about the defender’s (attacker’s) valuation of the targets.
To validate the models developed in this project, we start conducting human-subject experiments. In order to do that we have worked with the Institutional Review Boards (IRB) at both the University of Southern Californian and the University at Buffalo to review these experiments. Using the validated models, we will then simulate the games using different combinations of input data (input vectors). This input data will be shaped by our partnerships with stakeholders and the case studies utilized by our team. In order to achieve these partnerships, we have reached out and created many points of contact with local school districts (e.g., Williamsville Central School District), houses of worship (e.g., The Chapel at Crosspoint, Eastern Hills Church, The Revival Church, and other large local synagogues and mosques), sports venues (e.g., University at Buffalo Athletics) and law enforcement (e.g., Amherst Police). It should be noted that these are not the “formal” SENTRY case studies but there is clear relevance and complement with them.
